Capital Gains Tax on Bitcoin & other Cryptocurrency - Tax ...

Unbounded Capital on Twitter: ""Bitcoin SV, or #BSV...has risen 96% so far in 2020, versus a 36% gain for bitcoin...It’s also beating the 18% year-to-date return for bitcoin cash (BCH)..." Thanks for the shout out @coindesk. We think the rest of 2020 will be even bigger for #Bitcoin !

Unbounded Capital on Twitter: submitted by thacypha to bitcoinsv [link] [comments]

02-06 15:33 - 'Ask yourself: / Are the big boys of Wall Street happy they missed out on the 3200% gain the last 18 months? / Wall Street has TRILLIONS in capital to manipulate the market. / I'm pretty sure their plan is to tank Bitcoin to $9...' by /u/nbaaaaaa removed from /r/Bitcoin within 55-65min

'''
Ask yourself:
Are the big boys of Wall Street happy they missed out on the 3200% gain the last 18 months?
Wall Street has TRILLIONS in capital to manipulate the market.
I'm pretty sure their plan is to tank Bitcoin to $999, then load up.
'''
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: nbaaaaaa
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

PayPal vs Square: Which Fintech Stock Is A Better Buy?

The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating digitalization and has led to a spike in online transactions and e-commerce sales. According to PayPal, the penetration of e-commerce as a percentage of retail sales in the first half of 2020 outpaced prior external forecast by 3 to 5 years. Both consumers and merchants are increasingly adopting digital payments as contactless transactions have become increasingly important amid the current crisis.
The rapid penetration of digital payments led to double-digital revenue growth in the second quarter for PayPal and Square. Using the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool, we will place these two fintech payment firms alongside each other to assess which stock offers a more compelling investment opportunity.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL)
PayPal, which was spun off from eBay in 2015, has emerged as the digital payment leader. In the second quarter, PayPal added 21.3 million net new active accounts, reflecting a 137% Y/Y rise and marking the strongest growth in the company’s history thanks to a surge in e-commerce and digital payments. As of the end of 2Q, PayPal had 346 million active accounts with over 26 million merchant accounts.
The company’s 2Q revenue surged 22.2% Y/Y to $5.26 billion. And adjusted EPS rose 49% to $1.07 as the adjusted operating margin expanded 504 basis points to 28.2%. Total Payment Volume or TPV, which indicates payments processed through the PayPal platform, grew about 29% to $222 billion. Venmo, Paypal’s mobile payments platform, witnessed a 52% growth in its TPV to $37 billion.
Following the strong 2Q momentum, PayPal reinstated its 2020 guidance and in fact, raised it. The company expects revenue growth of 20% and adjusted EPS growth of about 25%. It anticipates adding 70 million net new active accounts this year.
To boost its top-line further and promote touchless payments, PayPal launched QR Code technology in 28 markets globally in May. CVS Pharmacy will be the first retail chain to offer its customers the option to use PayPal and Venmo QR codes at checkout in its US stores. The company will also launch Venmo credit card this year.
PayPal has also expanded its Visa Direct partnership globally to accelerate real-time access to funds for small businesses, consumers and partners across its platform. This collaboration enables PayPal to extend global white label Visa Direct payout services through PayPal and its Braintree, Hyperwallet and iZettle platforms.
On Sept. 22, Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev reiterated a Buy rating for PayPal with a price target of $285 as the Mizuho E-Commerce Tracker showed that unique views across key PayPal partner sites (like Etsy, Groupon and Wayfair) remained strong in July and August and also pointed to potential signs of life in the beleaguered travel category.
The Tracker also indicated that PayPal’s unique views continued to grow ahead of partner websites in the last two months, reflecting persistent share gains for the checkout button. Overall, the analyst expects strong July and August e-commerce trends coupled with share gains to bode well for the company’s second-half TPV. (See PYPL stock analysis on TipRanks)
PayPal stock has rallied about 74% year-to-date and could rise further by 17% in the coming months as indicated by the average analyst price target of $219.77. The stock scores a Strong Buy consensus based on 28 Buys, 5 Holds and no Sell ratings.
Square (SQ)
Payment facilitator Square is growing rapidly as consumers and businesses are migrating online at a faster pace amid the pandemic. From February through August 2020, there was a 13.2 percentage point increase in the share of Square sellers accepting online payments and by August, over 40% of all Square sellers were accepting online payments. Also, by August, more than 7 in 10 Square sellers were accepting contactless payments.
The company’s Cash App ecosystem delivered $1.2 billion in revenue in the second quarter, reflecting a whopping 361% Y/Y growth. The Cash App had over 30 million monthly transacting active customers in June. Aside from the accelerated digital migration, Cash App also gained from the impact of Fed stimulus, unemployment checks and tax refunds.
Second-quarter revenue grew about 64% Y/Y to $1.92 billion. But excluding bitcoin revenue, net revenue of $1.05 billion was flat Y/Y. Meanwhile, 2Q adjusted EPS declined 14.3% to $0.18. The strong growth in Cash App revenue was offset by the 17% decline in the company’s core higher-margin Seller business to $723 million. Square’s gross payment volume or GPV fell 15% Y/Y to $22.8 billion.
The Seller segment was impacted by lower volumes as several businesses were forced to close amid the shelter-in-place orders triggered by the pandemic. However, the company stated that the Sellers business improved with each month in the quarter as restrictions eased and more sellers adapted to the contactless platform.
Meanwhile, GPV from online channels grew over 50% and accounted for 25% of the Seller GPV reflecting the rapid adaption of online solutions by the sellers. (See SQ stock analysis on TipRanks)
Recently, the company announced two new features called On-Demand Pay for employees and Instant Payments for employers. These new features will further integrate Square’s Seller and Cash App ecosystems to offer financial services and simplify payroll.
Loop Capital analyst Kenneth Hill has just initiated coverage of Square with a Buy rating and a price target of $169. The analyst sees a great deal of upside ahead in the fintech company, driven by further investment in the business and monetization of the Cash App. Hill also believes that on the Seller side, the SMB network should "hold in well and continue a sustained recovery."
The Street has a cautious Moderate Buy consensus for Square with 14 Buys, 12 Holds and 2 Sells. Square stock has risen a stellar 149% year-to-date, so the average analyst price target of $151.77 indicates a possible downside of 2.5% ahead.
Bottom line
Both PayPal and Square have strong growth prospects in the digital payments world. If we look at the Street’s consensus and further upside potential, PayPal stock appears to be a better choice than Square currently.
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paypal-vs-square-fintech-stock-102007024.html
submitted by Brothanogood to stocks [link] [comments]

Monero Community Workgroup is preparing for the large growth ahead

Diego (u/rehrar), Doug (u/needmoney90), and Justin (u/SamsungGalaxayPlayer) would like to share some exciting news regarding the Monero Community Workgroup (MCW). The Monero community is growing, and so is our support and group of volunteers. The TL;DR is that you can expect some cool things as we grow.

Some MCW History

The MCW initially began as the Monero Marketing Workgroup in March 2017. Diego was interested in helping grow the Monero community, so he contacted Justin and set up the MoneroMarketing subreddit. At the time, the idea of a Monero marketing initiative shocked many in the community, who greatly appreciated Monero's general distance from the marketing efforts by many ICOs and scams around that time.
The Monero Marketing Workgroup focused mostly on preparing educational materials and getting people involved to work on Monero-related initiatives. Shortly after the workgroup began, it transitioned into an area that needed more love: community organization and communication.
Up until this point, the Monero community was focused around the developer meetings and the Monero subreddit. While these are still highly relevant in the Monero ecosystem (for good reason), there wasn't a great way for people to stay updated with the latest news and to discuss non-development items. The Monero Community Crowdfunding System (at the time Forum Funding System) submissions weren't discussed in the same way that they are today, and there was no central Community Workgroup to help bring initiatives together. It was obvious that with a larger, more diverse Monero community, a dedicated set of resources would be necessary to connect all these projects together.
The Monero Marketing Workgroup became the Monero Community Workgroup during the first Community Workgroup meeting on 18 June 2017. These meetings have largely occurred every other Saturday ever since and serve as an essential community service to discuss CCS proposals, hear workgroup updates and news, and discuss new ideas. The Community Workgroup channel (#monero-community) is used for many other purposes, including other scheduled meetings on deemed-necessary items of interest and regular feedback, questions, and chat.
On 7 October 2017, the workgroup hosted its first Coffee Chat, a casual conversation covering the month's recent news and most important discussion topics. These Coffee Chats help humanize the Monero community, who until this point typically were only known by their pseudonyms. The MCW played a part in the Monero Konferenco, Critical Decentralization Cluster at the Chaos Communication Congress, and Monero Village at Defcon livestreams and derived content. It also hosts Breaking Monero, a series that features members from the Monero Research Lab who discuss Monero's limitations.
A year after the MCW became its new name, the newly-founded Monero Outreach Workgroup took over many of its initial ambitions in June 2018. Other related workgroups like Monero Ecosystem have their own communities and functions.

The Community Keeps Growing

The Monero communities are significantly larger than they were back in early-2017, and they keep on growing. In early-2017, there were no mobile wallets, the GUI was only 3 months old, there were far fewer exchanges, etc. Today, Monero has one of the largest, most respected, and most passionate communities. We have the third largest number of developers of any cryptocurrency project, we are the only project with our own DEF CON village, and we are one of the few names that everybody knows. Awesome work to everyone around, truly.
With larger communities comes more work. The community deserves reliable, appropriate resources to sustain this growth. In a decentralized community, this is difficult. Monero Core provides some essential services such as the CCS, getmonero.org, Mattermost, and GitLab. However, they have been unable to meet the growing needs of the community alone. Thus, the MCW has been happy to support other needs to the extent possible: we discuss CCS proposals during our meetings, host several servers, organize Coffee Chats and conference talks, and more, along with efforts of other workgroups. These have become such a significant undertaking, and that's a good thing. As Monero continues to set the gold standard for cryptocurrencies the expectations keep growing. It's awesome to be a part of something where so many people care.

Our Future

The MCW has grown too much for the three of us to organize all the resources we need, let alone the needs of everyone in the Monero communities and workgroups. Thus, we are furthering our commitment and offering substantially more services in the coming months. To get there, we need your support to fill volunteer leadership and support positions.
Expect the following dedicated services from us:
  1. Jitsi server with higher framerate and resolutions than Jitsi Meet, so that our Coffee Chats, conferences, and other events are better quality than before.
  2. NextCloud to safely and securely collaborate on blog posts, share files, and more.
  3. Sandstorm and Wekan kanban board (open source Trello copy) to keep track of, propose, and assign tasks and projects.
  4. Chatwoot to provide tailored support for Monero users with a volunteer support community (also a good learning exercise).
  5. Mastodon to communicate about Monero and other news, so we aren't dependent on Twitter's policies and security.
  6. Flarum forum for Monero news and discussions, so we aren't dependent on Reddit.
We need your help to make this happen! We will form "task forces" to focus on certain areas like marketing, system administration, meetings, moderation, and finance. If you have any of these skills, please join #monero-community and say hi, or shoot us an email ([email protected])!
Doug, Diego, and Justin feel that these changes will allow the Monero community to grow in new ways and continue collaborating. The community consists of many workgroups that focus on projects that they are interested in, and we want to support the efforts of these communities.
To allow these changes, Justin will form an LLC, with him and Doug being officially on the board, and Diego taking an advisory role.
Creating a legal entity serves two distinct purposes. First, it allows us to aggregate payments from many people into a single entity to pay the costs for hosting various community servers/services. This greatly reduces our own workload and out of pocket payment. Secondly, it allows us to aggregate multiple social media handles that are currently controlled by individuals under a single entity, to reduce the "Bus Factor."
Of course, the MCW will remain very much grounded in the ideals that made that made it great in the first place. And the entity will always support the Monero communities, never claim to fully represent everyone involved in Monero. It can only ever represent the efforts of those involved.
Current and future goals of the MCW include:
  1. Provide resources as necessary and reasonable, such as communication platforms
  2. Organize discussions to promote communication, such as Community Meetings and Coffee Chats
  3. Promote positive culture through events, such as with Coffee Chats, the Monero Konferenco, the Moneoversary, and the Monero DEF CON Village
  4. Support other Monero workgroups and Monero ecosystem projects
  5. Provide mechanisms to collect feedback on community, developer, and research proposals
  6. Discuss the Monero CCS ideas and otherwise support the Monero CCS
  7. Promote Monero and privacy education and marketing
  8. Serve as an available community mediatoarbitrator where reasonable
  9. Communicate the broad interests of the Monero community and provide a voice where and how appropriate
  10. Collaborate with other projects, companies, governments, and communities

Monero Community Support LLC

Q: Why does the MCW think that an LLC is needed?
A: For two primary reasons. First, payments. As mentioned, there is existing digital infrastructure, currently paid out of pocket by MCW leaders. Even if a CCS proposal was to be explored, it would make personal accounting and tax reporting very difficult as assets would technically be mixed with personal assets, throwing off capital gains calculations. Up until now this has been a sacrifice of time that we were content to make, but as we continue to ramp up our goals it is becoming increasingly cumbersome, and alternative methods are needed. An LLC would be able to hold these monetary assets as its own entity, and all funds could be kept separate from personal funds, leading to much easier accounting all around.
Secondly, an LLC would allow for digital infrastructure to come under the legal purview of several people, reducing the possibility for any particular person going rogue and decimating what has been built. There may be concern about bringing resources under a corporation, and that this is not in the spirit of Monero, but one thing to note is that all assets and services (noted above) are FOSS/CC. Meaning if at any time a community doesn't care for what the MCW accomplishes under this LLC, they can simply start their own infrastructure with low switching costs. Once again: EVERYTHING IS FOSS/CC.
Q: Why not a nonprofit, cooperative, or other type of organization?
A: While not out of the question, these take additional effort. We hope to grow into these organization types with the help of others. However certain registrations take a lot of time and effort, plus has quite significant restrictions on activities. The LLC will allow us the flexibility and convenience we need now, especially when we currently have no income anyway.

Looking Ahead

The MCW has a mountain range of opportunities ahead of it, as do all Monero communities and workgroups. We hope that our efforts are of use to you and others, and we hope that you join us in making something great :)
Justin, Diego, and Doug
submitted by SamsungGalaxyPlayer to Monero [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 09/11

The Dow rose 131.06, or 0.48%, to 27,665.64, the Nasdaq lost 66.05, or 0.60%, to 10,853.55, and the S&P 500 advanced 1.78, or 0.05%, to 3,340.97.
Traders at /thewallstreet cheered as volatility returned to the stock market.
The major averages finished Friday's trading in mixed fashion, as dip buyers provided support for the Dow and the continued tech selloff made the Nasdaq the laggard once again. The chances for another round of fiscal stimulus ahead of the election were hurt yesterday after Democrats stopped the passage of the "skinny" GOP package, but the U.S. economy looks poised for a strong rebound in Q3, corporate earnings continue to largely overshoot pessimistic forecasts and the Fed remains "all in," leaving investors to mull the cross-currents.
Similar to the days before, today's price action was technically-oriented given the absence of market-moving news and the losses in stocks like AAPL, -1.3%, AMZN, -1.9%, and MSFT, -0.7% on no specific corporate news. Apple shares fell 7.4% this week.
The difference today was that their losses were offset by relative strength in the cyclical sectors, namely industrials (+1.4%), materials (+1.3%), and financials (+0.8%). Still, when Apple and Amazon are down more than 1.0%, there must be more winners than losers to make a meaningful difference.
There were more of the latter on Friday, as declining issues outpaced advancing issues at the NYSE and Nasdaq. The information technology (-0.8%), consumer discretionary (-0.3%), and communication services (-0.3%) sectors ended the day in negative territory due to their exposure to the mega-cap stocks.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 was down as much as 0.9% intraday and fell below its 50-day moving average (3322). A broad rebound in the afternoon, however, helped the benchmark index turn positive and close above the key technical level.
In TikTok news, President Trump said that the deadline established for China's ByteDance to sell video-sharing service TikTok's U.S. operations would not be extended, Reuters reported. "It'll either be closed up or they'll sell it," the president told reporters, adding, "There will be no extension of the TikTok deadline." MSFT in partnership with WMT and Oracle have been seen as the leading suitors to purchase TikTok's operations in the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Subsequently, Reuters reported that Chinese officials are so opposed to a forced sale of TikTok's U.S. operations that they would prefer to see the app shut down in the U.S. over that conclusion. Reuters noted that China was willing, if needed, to use revisions it made to a technology exports list on Aug. 28 to delay any deal reached by ByteDance.
Electric vehicle hopeful NKLA continued its fight this morning with a short-seller, which now appears to be "short-sellers." Nikola issued a statement in response to claims made about the company by activist short-seller Hindenburg Research yesterday, calling the firm's report "a hit job for short sale profit driven by greed." Nikola, which added that it has "nothing to hide and we will refute these allegations," announced that it has retained law firm Kirkland & Ellis to evaluate potential legal recourse and intends to bring the actions of the short-seller, together with evidence and documentation, to the attention of the SEC. Following the company's press release regarding the response, Andrew Left's Citron Research said via Twitter, "Congrats to Hindenburg for exposing what appears to be a total fraud with $NKLA. Citron will cover half of all legal expenses. You can't SLAPP the truth away. Explains why Milton sold at $10 this June $NKLA response warrants an SEC investigation to maintain integrity of EV mkt." After having dropped 11% on Thursday, Nikola shares fell a further 14.5%.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that AAPL has updated its App Store guidelines ahead of the release of iOS 14, with one major revision relating to game streaming services. The tech giant said in its revised guidelines that services such as Google Stadia (GOOG) and Microsoft xCloud are explicitly permitted, though under the condition that games offered in the service must be downloaded directly from the App Store, not from an all-in-one app.
Among the noteworthy gainers was Shares of ORCL, which was in focus after the company reported what Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow called a "surprisingly strong beat" and growth on licenses despite the continued macro uncertainty. NOG, which rose 1.3% after acquiring interests in the Delaware Basin and raising Q3 production guidance. Also higher was CX, which gained 8.3% in New York after Morgan Stanley analyst Nikolaj Lippmann upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight.
Among the notable losers was AMRS, which dropped 25.8% after responding to a lawsuit filed by Lavvan against the company for patent infringement and trade secret misappropriation. Also lower was CHWY, which declined 9.8% after reporting some cats have tried to take over the company with whiteclaws.
Despite a blowout fiscal Q4 report, PTON were 4.2% lower following last night's from the fitness products and services provider.
Elsewhere stocks were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.79% to around 3,260.35 while the Shenzhen component rose 1.57% to about 12,942.95. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.78% to end its trading day at 24,503.31.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index (93.35, +0.01, unch) reclaimed its overnight loss, gaining 0.7% for the week.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries ended the abbreviated week with modest gains across the curve. The cash session started with some light selling for the second day in a row, but the market recovered from the early dip with ease.

Commodity

Gold slipped on Friday on a lack of further stimulus from the European Central Bank and the U.S. government, but for the week the safe-haven metal was set to end higher. Crude remained on track for a second weekly drop as investors expected a global glut to persist if demand weakens further with rising COVID-19 cases in some countries.

Crypto

Bitcoin is struggling to gather upside traction despite repeated defense of support at $10,000. The top cryptocurrency’s sell-off from the August high of $12,476 looks to have come to a halt near $10,000 over the past seven days.

YTD

  • FAAMG + some penny stocks +21.0% YTD
  • Spoos +3.4% YTD
  • Old man -3.1% YTD
  • Russy -10.3% YTD

CPI

Total CPI increased 0.4% m/m while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.4%. Those gains left total CPI up 1.3% yyr and core CPI up 1.7% yyr.
The key takeaway from the report, which featured the largest increase in the index for used cars and trucks (+5.4%) since March 1969, is that the increase in the all items index was broad-based; nonetheless, annual inflation rates are still running well below 2.0%, so there is still more noise than bothersome policy signal in the August report.

IPO (Most Anticipated)

Week of Sep14-18
  • Company: AMWL Amwell (NYSE) | Leading telehealth company enabling digital delivery of care for healthcare’s key stakeholders | Initial Shares: 35.0 M | Initial Range: $14.00-16.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Piper Jaffray, UBS, Credit Suisse, Cowen
  • Company: BNL Broadstone Net Lease | REIT that acquires, owns, and manages primarily single-tenant commercial real estate properties | Initial Shares: 33.5 M | Initial Range: $17.00-19.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BMO Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley, Capital One Securities, Truist Securities
  • Company: FROG JFrog (Nasdaq) | Developer of an end-to-end, hybrid, universal DevOps platform | Initial Shares: 11.6 M | Initial Range: $33.00 -37.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BofA Securities
  • Company: SNOW Snowflake (NYSE) | Developer of a data cloud platform that enables customers to consolidate data into a single source to drive business insights | Initial Shares: 28.0 M | Initial Range: $75.00-85.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Allen & Co, Citigroup
  • Company: STEP StepStone Group (Nasdaq) | Global private markets investment firm | Initial Shares: 17.5 M | Initial Range: $15.00-17.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, UBS Investment Bank
  • Company: SUMO Sumo Logic (Nasdaq) | Pioneer of Continuous Intelligence, a new category of software, which enables organizations to address opportunities presented by digital transformation and cloud computing | Initial Shares: 14.8 M | Initial Range: $17.00-21.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RBC Capital, Jefferies
  • Company: U Unity Software (NYSE) | Leading platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 3D content | Initial Shares: 25.0 M | Initial Range: $34.00-42.00 | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, Barclays, William Blair
Week of Sep21-25
  • Company: PLTR Palantir Technologies (NYSE) | Software developer for defense, intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and commercial enterprises | Initial Shares: 244.2 | Initial Range: NA | Priced On: NA | Opened: NA | Underwriters: Lead: Direct Listing

What's next?

Beer o'clock
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.41 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

FI on my birthday!

I did it today. On my 47th birthday, I reached $3 million in cash & investments, a paid off house & 2 cars. I have reached my FI target of $100k @ 3.3% SWR. I knew it was going to be close with the markets, payday, and my company's equity coming in today.
Plan is to FIRE in 3 months. $3 million was a symbolic number, I could have FIREd 2 months ago at $2.95 million and lived pretty much the same life. However, I am getting another ~$70k in equity in 3 months and would like a bit of a buffer especially with the volatile markets. Also, the plan was to take a nice trip to Europe in August - I don't see that happening.
It is crazy, I know of many people who are laid off, working reduced hours, worried about their job or tapping into debt. And I am making plans to quit working.

Mega edit:
Asset allocation
Cash & short term investments: 25% (increased 10% from equities due to C19)
Employer's Equity: 10%
Equity ETFs: 45% (down 10% - sold in early march, will buy back in later)
Bond ETFs: 10%
Crypto: 10%
Please bring on the flames for timing the market, but I sold early-ish, it helps me sleep at night, and right now I am trying to be more conservative vs. aggressive.
The crypto is a flyer. I bought casino level bitcoin in 2012 at $18, then sold a bunch when it went up to $150. Then bought a bunch more at $1000, and have been selling little bits for a few years. Total investment: $45k, total value sold and still held: $500k. I would like to sell more, but it has a capital gains tax liability, so FIRE with no income next year would help reduce taxes.

About my journey
Grew up middle class. Money was tight from time to time, but I never really saw that.
Part time job when I was 16 for spending cash. Never went into debt. Saved a little.
Went into a good college for STEM, received $8000 total for tuition from family and received a student loan for $1000. Did a few paid internships while in college. Paid off the loan with my first post-school paycheck.
Graduated in the tech industry in 97. Started full time at the last internship. $40k base. Stayed there for 2 more years, increased base by 20%. $48k base. Left (co-worker left and pulled me), for a ~100% increase. $90k base. Stayed there 6 months (dying ship), left for ~10% increase. $100k base. Stayed there for 2 years (all of my managers up to CEO left in 2 weeks), left for a 0% change. $100k base. Stayed there for 1.5 years, was let go, started consulting at +50% (but no benefits). $150k consulting. Consulted for 8 months, left when project was wrapping up for -40% (+10% from previous full time) $110k base. Stayed there for 11 years (company was acquired 3 after years), increased pay by ~20% in 11 years. $133k base. Left for 5% increase. $141k base. Worked there for 6 months (bad fit), left for 5% increase. $150k base. Here now. Making about 4x after 20 years. Did not include any bonus (or not), benefits (health/retirement/etc...) stock options, quality of life, etc..

Current investments
Canadian ETF / funds I invest in in decreasing amounts.
XGRO VCN VXC VAB VT TDB900 TDB902 TDB909 TDB911 Tangerine Balanced (part of emergency fund) TDB661 CDZ

submitted by throwaway_canada1 to financialindependence [link] [comments]

Do I sound more like a Democrat or Republican?

Here are my positions -
  1. Should the federal government institute a mandatory buyback of assault weapons? No
  2. Should a business be able to deny service to a customer if the request conflicts with the owner’s religious beliefs? If they are not engaged in interstate commerce, the Federal Government shouldn't hold any power to legislate on the matter. At the state level (and federal if interstate) Yes, so long as they are not discriminating on the basis of race, sex, sexual orientation, transgender, or other uncontrollable factors.
  3. Should the government continue to fund Planned Parenthood? Yes, with oversight to make sure the money is going o where it is supposed to.
  4. Should universities provide “trigger warnings” and “safe spaces” for students? No
  5. Do you support the death penalty? Generally no, with the possible exception of treason during an insurrection or invasion.
  6. Should the government support a separation of church and state by removing references to God on money, federal buildings, and national monuments? No, this is referring to God as a concept.
  7. Should businesses be required to have women on their board of directors? No
  8. Do you support the legalization of same sex marriage? Yes, through a constitutional amendment. At the state level, yes.
  9. Should the military allow women to serve in combat roles? Yes as long as they meet the same physical standards as men and pass the same tests.
  10. Should marital rape be classified and punished as severely as non-marital rape? This should be a state-level issue, but yes.
  11. Should terminally ill patients be allowed to end their lives via assisted suicide? Only if there is no chance of survival.
  12. Should hate speech be protected by the first amendment? It is, and yes.
  13. Should gay couples have the same adoption rights as straight couples? Yes
  14. Should states be allowed to display the Confederate flag on government property? They have the right, but I would prefer my state not.
  15. Should women be allowed to wear a Niqāb, or face veil, to civic ceremonies? I am not fully certain. I am leaning towards yes, as long as another woman has verified her identity.
  16. Should welfare recipients be tested for drugs? Only if they have a criminal history related to drug abuse.
  17. Should employers be required to pay men and women the same salary for the same job? This shouldn't be a federal issue unless it involves interstate commerce. But at the state-level (and federal if interstate), Yes if they work the same positions and for the same hours and conditions.
  18. Should there be fewer or more restrictions on current welfare benefits? More, reform it so it supplements, rather than replaces, an income.
  19. Should the government raise the federal minimum wage? The federal government should not have the power to enact minimum wage laws unless it involves interstate commerce, in which case yes, it should be $15 an hour. Each state should be able to set its own laws on the matter.
  20. Should the government make cuts to public spending in order to reduce the national debt? No.
  21. Should the U.S. increase tariffs on imported products from China? Yes, China should be punished for violations of international law.
  22. Should businesses be required to provide paid leave for full-time employees during the birth of a child or sick family member? At the state-level, yes. At the federal level, yes, if they are involved in interstate commerce.
  23. Should the government increase the tax rate on profits earned from the sale of stocks, bonds, and real estate? Capital gains should be taxed the same as ordinary income.
  24. Should the current estate tax rate be decreased? No, I am satisfied with the current system.
  25. Should the U.S. continue to participate in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)? No.
  26. Should the President offer tax breaks to individual companies to keep jobs in the U.S.? No, but put tariffs on all imported goods.
  27. Should the government prevent “mega mergers” of corporations that could potentially control a large percentage of market share within its industry? No.
  28. Do you believe labor unions help or hurt the economy? Help, in theory, but are sometimes harmful.
  29. Should the government break up Amazon, Facebook and Google? No.
  30. Should the government add or increase tariffs on products imported into the country? Yes, all imported goods should be taxed 20%.
  31. Should the U.S. raise or lower the tax rate for corporations? Keep at current rate, but close all loopholes.
  32. Should the government require businesses to pay salaried employees, making up to $46k/year, time-and-a-half for overtime hours? At the state level, yes. At the federal level, only if they are involved in interstate commerce.
  33. Do you support the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? No.
  34. Would you favor an increased sales tax in order to reduce property taxes? No.
  35. Should pension plans for federal, state, and local government workers be transitioned into privately managed accounts? No.
  36. Should the government subsidize farmers? For now, yes, but once we get out of trade deals, put tariffs on all imports, and tax all interstate sales, subsidies should be ended.
  37. Should the government use economic stimulus to aid the country during times of recession? No, recessions are natural cycles.
  38. Should the Federal Reserve Bank be audited by Congress? Yes, we should know where that money is going.
  39. Should the IRS create a free electronic tax filing system? Yes.
  40. Should an in-state sales tax apply to online purchases of in-state buyers from out-of-state sellers? No, the federal government should not enact an intrastate sales tax.
  41. Should pension payments be increased for retired government workers? Yes, adjust them yearly for inflation.
  42. Should U.S. citizens be allowed to save or invest their money in offshore bank accounts? Yes, as long as all income is reported.
  43. Should the government classify Bitcoin as a legal currency? Yes, but maintain the system of the dollar and cash as a legal currency.
  44. Should the government acquire equity stakes in companies it bails out during a recession? No.
  45. Do you support charter schools? No.
  46. Should the government decriminalize school truancy? No for Elementary school. For middle and high school, no social studies and English, yes for everything else.
  47. Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun? States and the federal government should not be allowed to enact any restrictions on black powder weapons or ammunition for them. For cartridge firearms, the federal government should only have the power to regulate interstate sale of them. At the state level, cartridge firearms should require a license to obtain. The process should involve passing a mental and physical health exam, having a decent criminal record, and passing a written and shooting exam. Handguns and centerfire semi-automatic weapons should have higher standards for licensing and should be registered before being obtained, but automatic CCW to anyone who has a license for a handgun. fully automatic weapons should be illegal to sell, except to collectors, who must meet an even higher standard to obtain.
  48. Should victims of gun violence be allowed to sue firearms dealers and manufacturers? No, this is just dumb.
  49. Should the President of the United States have the power to deploy military troops in order to stop protests? If any state governments are overthrown, yes. Otherwise, only if the Governor of a state requests assistance.
  50. Should teachers be allowed to carry guns at school? Yes if they have a valid license 9see above).
  51. Should it be illegal to burn the American flag? No, but I have no respect for anyone who does.
  52. Should the state government order schools to provide online only classes in order to combat coronavirus? No, let each school decide.
  53. Should there be term limits set for members of Congress? Yes, maximum four terms for the House, and maximum two for the Senate.
  54. Should people on the “no-fly list” be banned from purchasing guns and ammunition? No, this denies one of due process rights.
  55. Are you in favor of decriminalizing drug use? Yes, for most but not all drugs (basically the really bad ones, e.g., meth, heroin, etc;)
  56. Should the NSA (National Security Agency) be allowed to collect basic metadata of citizen’s phone calls such as numbers, timestamps, and call durations? Only with a warrant and probable cause of a crime.
  57. Should the Supreme Court be reformed to include more seats and term limits on judges? No, this is just trying to pack the court, which should not be politicized.
  58. Should the government regulate social media sites, as a means to prevent fake news and misinformation? No, this violates free speech.
  59. Do you support the Patriot Act? Not the clause that allows warrantless searches.
  60. Should the government be allowed to seize private property, with reasonable compensation, for public or civic use? Only for public land and not for privatization, and the owner must be paid for losses in full.
  61. Should college sports be played in the fall of 2020? Yes, but let teams decide.
  62. Should local police increase surveillance and patrol of Muslim neighborhoods? No, this just breeds resentment.
  63. Should the government raise the retirement age for Social Security? No
  64. Should the government pass laws which protect whistleblowers? Yes, so long as national security isn't compromised.
  65. Should the redrawing of Congressional districts be controlled by an independent, non-partisan commission? Yes, gerrymandering breeds corruption.
  66. Should internet service providers be allowed to speed up access to popular websites (that pay higher rates) at the expense of slowing down access to less popular websites (that pay lower rates)? If they are privately owned, yes.
  67. Should the U.S. government grant immunity to Edward Snowden? For his leaks on domestic surveillance, yes. Some other things, maybe not.
  68. Should foreign terrorism suspects be given constitutional rights? Yes.
  69. Do you support the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani? Yes.
  70. Should the U.S. continue to support Israel? Yes.
  71. Should the U.S. accept refugees from Syria? Yes, but only after extensive background checks to confirm that they are not a threat and are genuine refugees and not economic migrants.
  72. Should the government increase or decrease military spending? Decrease by streamlining it, and making it more efficient, through eliminating wasteful spending.
  73. Should the military fly drones over foreign countries to gain intelligence and kill suspected terrorists? No, unless said country has approved it, and American citizens should be given fair trials.
  74. Should the military be allowed to use enhanced interrogation techniques, such as waterboarding, to gain information from suspected terrorists? No.
  75. Should every 18 year old citizen be required to provide at least one year of military service? No, but maintain the Selective Service system and allow states to draft people if necessary.
  76. Should Jerusalem be recognized as the capital of Israel? Yes.
  77. Should the U.S. go to war with Iran? No, they should be disarmed through diplomatic channels.
  78. Should the U.S. remain in the United Nations? Yes.
  79. Should the U.S. remain in NATO? Yes.
  80. Should the U.S. defend other NATO countries that maintain low military defense budgets relative to their GDP? Yes, but get them to pay their share.
  81. Should the United States pull all military troops out of Afghanistan? If the Afghan government wants us to, then yes.
  82. Should the U.S. sell military weapons to India in order to counter Chinese and Russian influence? Yes.
  83. Should the U.S. conduct military strikes against North Korea in order to destroy their long-range missile and nuclear weapons capabilities? No, use all diplomatic means first.
  84. Do you support President Obama’s move to lift the trade and travel embargo on Cuba? Yes.
  85. Should it be illegal to join a boycott of Israel? No.
  86. Should the government cancel production of the F-35 fighter? Yes, until the price has been lowered or our deficits have been drastically reduced, and its hardware is drastically improved.
  87. Do you support the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)? No.
  88. Should people be required to work in order to receive Medicaid? No.
  89. Should cities open drug “safe havens” where people who are addicted to illegal drugs can use them under the supervision of medical professionals? Yes.
  90. Do you support the legalization of Marijuana? The federal government should not have the power to ban marijuana, except to regulate or ban its interstate sale, which it shouldn't at the state level, legalize.
  91. Should the government regulate the prices of life-saving drugs? No.
  92. Should health insurers be allowed to deny coverage to individuals who have a pre-existing condition? At the federal level, no, if they are operating in interstate commerce. At the state level, no.
  93. Should there be more or less privatization of veterans’ healthcare? Less, improve the current system.
  94. Should the federal government increase funding of health care for low income individuals (Medicaid)? Yes.
  95. Should the federal government be allowed to negotiate drug prices for Medicare? Yes.
  96. Should the government fund the World Health Organization? Yes.
  97. Should the government increase environmental regulations to prevent climate change? No.
  98. Should researchers be allowed to use animals in testing the safety of drugs, vaccines, medical devices, and cosmetics? Yes, but not for cosmetics.
  99. Should the U.S. expand offshore oil drilling? No, but maintain current rigs.
  100. Do you support the use of hydraulic fracking to extract oil and natural gas resources? Allow it to be legal, but don't subsidize.
  101. Should the government stop construction of the Dakota Access pipeline? No.
  102. Should disposable products (such as plastic cups, plates, and cutlery) that contain less than 50% of biodegradable material be banned? No.
  103. Should drilling be allowed in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge? No.
  104. Should cities be allowed to offer private companies economic incentives to relocate? Yes.
  105. Should the government give tax credits and subsidies to the wind power industry? No, no industry should be favored.
  106. Should the government require children to be vaccinated for preventable diseases? No.
  107. Do you support the use of nuclear energy? Yes, lessen restrictions, but no subsidies.
  108. Should producers be required to label genetically engineered foods (GMOs)? Yes.
  109. Should illegal immigrants have access to government-subsidized healthcare? No.
  110. Should immigrants be deported if they commit a serious crime? Yes, after serving their sentence.
  111. Should illegal immigrants be offered in-state tuition rates at public colleges within their residing state? No.
  112. Should the U.S. build a wall along the southern border? No, but make a high tech surveillance barrier instead of a physical wall. This is because a physical wall would be too costly and ineffective.
  113. Should local law enforcement be allowed to detain illegal immigrants for minor crimes and transfer them to federal immigration authorities? Yes.
  114. Should sanctuary cities receive federal funding? No.
  115. Should the U.S. increase restrictions on its current border security policy? Yes.
  116. Should immigrants be required to pass a citizenship test to demonstrate a basic understanding of our country’s language, history, and government? Yes.
  117. Should children of illegal immigrants be granted legal citizenship? Yes, if they were born here.
  118. Should Muslim immigrants be banned from entering the country until the government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists? No.
  119. Should immigrants be required to learn English? Yes, if they wish to become citizens.
  120. Should there be a temporary ban on all immigration into the United States? No, but increase border security.
  121. Should the US increase or decrease the amount of temporary work visas given to high-skilled immigrant workers? Increase, our economy relies on businesses hiring the highest skilled workers at the lowest cost.
  122. Should working illegal immigrants be given temporary amnesty? No.
  123. Should immigrants to the United States be allowed to hold dual citizenship status? Yes.
  124. Do you support Common Core national standards? Yes, but only for English and social studies.
  125. Should a photo ID be required to vote? No, but gradually update voter rolls and purge voters who are required to be according tot eh Voting Registration act of 1993.
  126. Should foreigners, currently residing in the United States, have the right to vote? No, only citizens should.
  127. Should the minimum voting age be lowered? No.
  128. Should the electoral college be abolished? No.
  129. Should the US have a mail-in ballot process for whole states in local, state, and federal elections? No.
  130. Should foreign lobbyists be allowed to raise money for American elections? No.
  131. Should there be a limit to the amount of money a candidate can receive from a donor? No.
  132. Should corporations, unions, and non-profit organizations be allowed to donate to political parties? No.
  133. Should there be a 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials from becoming lobbyists after they leave the government? No.
  134. Should political candidates be required to release their recent tax returns to the public? No.
  135. Should funding for local police departments be redirected to social and community based programs? No, increase funding and training for police departments in higher crime rate communities
  136. Should police officers be required to wear body cameras? Yes.
  137. Should convicted criminals have the right to vote? Yes, but only after completing their sentence and probation.
  138. Should drug traffickers receive the death penalty? No.
  139. Should non-violent prisoners be released from jail in order to reduce overcrowding? Yes, but have them do community service.
  140. Do you support mandatory minimum prison sentences for people charged with drug possession? No.
  141. Should the government hire private companies to run prisons? No.
  142. Should prisons ban the use of solitary confinement for juveniles? No, but it is currently being overused
  143. Should the US assassinate suspected terrorists in foreign countries? No, capture, interrogate, and imprison them instead
  144. What is your position on Abortion? Adopt a constitutional amendment overturning Roe v Wade and allow state to enact their own laws. At the state level, abortion should be legal within the first 20 weeks, but afterwards, should be banned except for exceptional cases.
  145. Do you support affirmative action? No.
submitted by Maximum-Lingonberry2 to NoStupidQuestions [link] [comments]

Tweet slays Market

For Trading October 7th
Reversal by Tweet
“No Deal Until After I’m Re-elected”
Today’s market was split early with the DJIA higher and the NASDAQ lower. It made some headway all day, never quite catching up, and then after “THE TWEET” we reversed hard and the DJIA finished -375.88 (1.34%), NASDAQ -177.88 (1.57%), S&P 500 -47.68 (1.4%), the Russell held better only down 4.67 (.30%) and Transports -82.85 (.72%). My guess is that the president’s misdirection play will be reversed when it politically suits him, and the market will rally again as he tries everything in the book, except of course, actual action, to get that second term. Market internals were negative, but not terrible with NYSE just 4:3 down and the NASDAQ 10:7, with all but 3 DJIA stocks lower. BA was the leader on the downside trimming 77 DP’s off the index and PG and DD, lower by less than $1, and CSCO unchanged.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/vBwoKu3apTI
SECTORS: There was some good news for LEVI. The estimates were for a loss of $ .22/share and when they reported a profit of $ .08, increased margins and 52% growth in Ecommerce the stock took off. The last 10 days had the stock moving higher from $11.91 to today’s high of $15.27 before closing a bit lower at $14.74. In extended hours, the stock hit $16.78 and is currently $16.20 +1.19 (7.86%). The news for Social Capital’s SPAC III (IPOC) was evidently a disappointment. Chalmath Palihapitiya gave the story on CNBC before the open and the stock did nothing but head south. It closed $10.95- 1.73 (13.64%), but the big surprise to me was that Social Capital II also fell, closing $17.49 -2.22 (11.26%) and it has a completely different merger going on in the real estate business. Defies logic, but since we’re in both, I’m staying long. And the HOME RUN of the Day, PPSI, Pioneer Power Solutions, a little know company with the only recent news was a Form 4 (insider buying) filed in August for a purchase 1,000 shares of the stock at an average price of $1.40. The stock was trading $2.91 +1.34 pre-market (86%) and at the end of the day it was $5.83 +4.28 (273%) and in late trading it hit $9.43 and closed $6.20 +4.63 (294.9%). Quite a day for a stock with no news!!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were MIXED with the cruise lines up and the airlines lower. CCL +.29, RCL +.81, NCLH +.36, AAL -.68, DAL -1.14, LUV -1.15, UAL -1.49, HA -.36, ALK -1.57, and XTN $59.35 -.72 (1.21%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.50, BGS -.22, FLO -.29, CPB -.39, CAG -.45, MDLZ –1.04, KHC -.24, CALM +.30, -.14 (.4%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -3.03, ABBV -2.15, REGN -24.08, ISRG -8.68, GILD -1.10, MYL -.29, TEVA -.11, VRTX -7.98, BHC -.82, INCY -3.70, ICPT -2.03, LABU -1.53, and IBB $137.88 -1.69 (1.21%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.46, CGC -.59, CRON -.,19, GWPH +1.45, ACB -.18, CURLF -.13, KERN -.07 and MJ $10.53 -.30 (2.77%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -7.62, GD -.42, TXT -.68, NOC -3.21, BWXT -1.18, TDY -.65, RTX -1.06, and ITA $159.19 -2.99 (1.84%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.24, JWN -.46, KSS -1.01, DDS +.64, WMT -1.35, TGT -1.70, TJX -1.19, RL -2.54, UAA -.49, LULU -9.75, TPR -.06, CPRI -.28, and XRT $51.76 -1.01 (1.91%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -40.83, AMZN -101.20, AAPL -3.30, FB -7.87, NFLX -16.28, NVDA +6.30, TSLA -12.46, BABA +3.53, BIDU +.13, CMG +3.34, CRM -1.64, BA -11.20, CAT -2.04, DIS -2,34, and XLK $115.64 -1.82 (1.55%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with interest rates, with GS -1.02, JPM -.94, BAC -.21, MS -.87, C -.51, PNC -2.72, AIG -.07, TRV -.38, V -2.77, and XLF $24.45 -.25 (1.01%).
OIL, $40.67 +1.45, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close +2.17. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $29.74 -.45 (1.49%).
GOLD $1,908.80 -11.30, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $10,630 -185. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $10.85 -.43 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Flatten the Curve. #49. Let's Dig into Jade Helm. AI. The Surveillance State. Internet of Things. FISA. Pentagon Preparing for Mass Civil Breakdown. What is Mob Excess Deterrent Using Silent Audio? Stay Aware and Get Ahead of the Curve.

Flatten the Curve. Part 48. Source Here
It's getting crazier day by day now, so are you following the Boy Scout motto?
On this topic, Baden-Powell says: Remember your motto, "Be Prepared." Be prepared for accidents by learning beforehand what you ought to do in the different kinds that are likely to occur. Be prepared to do that thing the moment the accident does occur. In Scouting for Boys, Baden-Powell wrote that to Be Prepared means “you are always in a state of readiness in mind and body to do your duty.”
Why should you be prepared? Because TPTB have been preparing, that’s why.
June 12, 2014: The Guardian • Pentagon preparing for mass civil breakdown. Social science is being militarised to develop 'operational tools' to target peaceful activists and protest movements Source Here
Pentagon preparing for mass civil breakdown. It seemed ludicrous back in 2014, didn't it? Inconceivable. Sure some preppers believed it, but they're always getting ready and nothing happened. Doomsday was always right around the corner, and then the next corner, and on and on. Televangelists have probably accused more politicians of being the antichrist than the number of politicians went to Epstein's Island.
But why would they be preparing for mass civil breakdown? Could it be the same reason as why the miltary is preparing for war, droughts and famines brought about by environmental collapse?
February 20, 2020: History Network • Here’s Why These Six Ancient Civilizations Mysteriously Collapsed. From the Maya to Greenland’s Vikings, check out six civilizations that seemingly disappeared without a trace. Source Here
All of these civilizations vanished because of some combination of exhausting their natural resources, drought, plauge, and the little ice age. Sound familiar? Don't tell me that the Rockefeller Foundation and BlackRock became environmentally aware out of a sense of obligation to the planet. They're setting the groundwork for what's coming down the pipe. This isn't about money anymore, this is about control and survival. Throw out the rulebook because the rules no longer apply.
Do you think the surveillance system is for your protection, or the protection of the state? Don't you think that an era of upcoming calamities will severely damage the communication networks, and thus the surveillance system? It might be prudent to consider that Starlink is being established to make the system redundant, so that they never lose track of the precious worker bees before they can be connected to the AI hive mind, right Elon? Neuralink, don't leave home without it.
But let's not forget about the wonderful world of the Internet of Things.
March 15, 2012 • More and more personal and household devices are connecting to the internet, from your television to your car navigation systems to your light switches. CIA Director David Petraeus cannot wait to spy on you through them. Earlier this month, Petraeus mused about the emergence of an "Internet of Things" -- that is, wired devices -- at a summit for In-Q-Tel, the CIA's venture capital firm. "'Transformational' is an overused word, but I do believe it properly applies to these technologies," Petraeus enthused, "particularly to their effect on clandestine tradecraft." All those new online devices are a treasure trove of data if you're a "person of interest" to the spy community. Once upon a time, spies had to place a bug in your chandelier to hear your conversation. With the rise of the "smart home," you'd be sending tagged, geolocated data that a spy agency can intercept in real time when you use the lighting app on your phone to adjust your living room's ambiance. "Items of interest will be located, identified, monitored, and remotely controlled through technologies such as radio-frequency identification, sensor networks, tiny embedded servers, and energy harvesters -- all connected to the next-generation internet using abundant, low-cost, and high-power computing," Petraeus said, "the latter now going to cloud computing, in many areas greater and greater supercomputing, and, ultimately, heading to quantum computing." Petraeus allowed that these household spy devices "change our notions of secrecy" and prompt a rethink of "our notions of identity and secrecy." All of which is true -- if convenient for a CIA director. The CIA has a lot of legal restrictions against spying on American citizens. But collecting ambient geolocation data from devices is a grayer area, especially after the 2008 carve-outs to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Hardware manufacturers, it turns out, store a trove of geolocation data; and some legislators have grown alarmed at how easy it is for the government to track you through your phone or PlayStation. That's not the only data exploit intriguing Petraeus. He's interested in creating new online identities for his undercover spies -- and sweeping away the "digital footprints" of agents who suddenly need to vanish. "Proud parents document the arrival and growth of their future CIA officer in all forms of social media that the world can access for decades to come," Petraeus observed. "Moreover, we have to figure out how to create the digital footprint for new identities for some officers." Source Here
December 19, 2019: New York Times • THE DATA REVIEWED BY TIMES OPINION didn’t come from a telecom or giant tech company, nor did it come from a governmental surveillance operation. It originated from a location data company, one of dozens quietly collecting precise movements using software slipped onto mobile phone apps. You’ve probably never heard of most of the companies — and yet to anyone who has access to this data, your life is an open book. They can see the places you go every moment of the day, whom you meet with or spend the night with, where you pray, whether you visit a methadone clinic, a psychiatrist’s office or a massage parlor. The Times and other news organizations have reported on smartphone tracking in the past. But never with a data set so large. Even still, this file represents just a small slice of what’s collected and sold every day by the location tracking industry — surveillance so omnipresent in our digital lives that it now seems impossible for anyone to avoid. It doesn’t take much imagination to conjure the powers such always-on surveillance can provide an authoritarian regime like China’s. Within America’s own representative democracy, citizens would surely rise up in outrage if the government attempted to mandate that every person above the age of 12 carry a tracking device that revealed their location 24 hours a day. Yet, in the decade since Apple’s App Store was created, Americans have, app by app, consented to just such a system run by private companies. Now, as the decade ends, tens of millions of Americans, including many children, find themselves carrying spies in their pockets during the day and leaving them beside their beds at night — even though the corporations that control their data are far less accountable than the government would be. Source Here
The IoT should be renamed to IoTT (Internet of Tracking Things), shouldn't it. But we can't have people figure out what's really happening, can we? It's a good thing that quantum computing isn't too close, isn’t it?
April 5, 2018: Global News • (Project Maven) Over 3,000 Google employees have a signed a petition in protest against the company’s involvement with a U.S. Department of Defense artificial intelligence (AI) project that studies imagery and could eventually be used to improve drone strikes in the battlefield. Source Here
December 12, 2019 • Palantir took over Project Maven defense contract after Google backed out. Source Here
December 29, 2020: Input • Palantir exec says its work is on par with the Manhattan Project. Comparing AI to most lethal weapon in human history isn’t comforting. SourceHere
August 14, 2020: Venture: • Google researchers use quantum computing to help improve image classification. Source Here
Hmmm. Maybe Apple will be for the little guy? They have always valued privacy rights, right?
October 2, 2013: Vice News • The hacktivist group Anonymous released a video statement with an accompanying Pastebin document claiming that there are definitive links between AuthenTec, the company that developed the iPhone 5S’s fingerprint scanner, and the US government. Source Here
An apple a day helps the NSA. Or Google. Or Microsoft. Or Amazon. Take your pick from the basket, because dem Apple's are all the same. But at least we have fundamental rights, right?
Foreign agent declaration not required • No mention of foreign agent status is made in the Protect America Act of 2007. Under prior FISA rules, persons targeted for surveillance must have been declared as foreign agents before a FISA warrant would be accorded by the FISC court.
'Quasi-anti-terrorism law' for all-forms of intelligence collection • Vastly marketed by U.S. federal and military agencies as a law to prevent terror attacks, the Protect America Act was actually a law focused on the 'acquisition' of desired intelligence information, of unspecified nature. The sole requirement is geolocation outside the United States at time of Directive invocation; pursuant to Authorization or Order invocation, surveillance Directives can be undertaken towards persons targeted for intelligence information gathering. Implementation of Directives can take place inside the United States or outside the United States. No criminal or terrorism investigation of the person need be in play at time of the Directive. All that need be required is that the target be related to an official desire for intelligence information gathering for actions on part of persons involved in surveillance to be granted full immunity from U.S. criminal or civil procedures, under Section 105B(l) of the Act.
Removal of FISA Strictures from warrant authorization; warrants not required • But the most striking aspect of the Protect America Act was the notation that any information gathering did not comprise electronic surveillance. This wording had the effect of removing FISA-related strictures from Protect America Act 2007-related Directives, serving to remove a number of protections for persons targeted, and requirements for persons working for U.S. intelligence agencies.
The acquisition does not constitute electronic surveillance • The removal of the term electronic surveillance from any Protect America Act Directive implied that the FISC court approval was no longer required, as FISA warrants were no longer required. In the place of a warrant was a certification, made by U.S. intelligence officers, which was copied to the Court. In effect, the FISC became less of a court than a registry of pre-approved certifications.Certifications (in place of FISA warrants) were able to be levied ex post facto, in writing to the Court no more than 72 hours after it was made. The Attorney General was to transmit as soon as possible to the Court a sealed copy of the certification that would remain sealed unless the certification was needed to determine the legality of the acquisition.Source Here
Oh. FISA is basically a rubber stamp. And even if it the stage play wasn't pretending to follow the script, would it matter? Who could actually stop it at this point? The cat's out of the bag and Pandoras Box is open.
Controversial debates arose as the Protect America Act was published. Constitutional lawyers and civil liberties experts expressed concerns that this Act authorized massive, wide-ranging information gathering with no oversight. Whereas it placed much focus on communications, the Act allowed for information gathering of all shapes and forms. The ACLU called it the "Police America Act" – "authorized a massive surveillance dragnet", calling the blank-check oversight provisions "meaningless," and calling them a "phony court review of secret procedures."
So the surveillance state doesn't have checks and balances anymore. The state is preparing for Massive Civil Breakdown. They keep warning us about environmental collapse. Got it? Good. Let's keep on keeping on.
The District of Columbia Organic Act of 1871 created a single new district corporation governing the entire federal territory, called the District of Columbia, thus dissolving the three major political subdivisions of the District (Port of Georgetown, the City of Washington, and Washington County) and their governments. Source Here)
The first big leap in corporate personhood from holding mere property and contract rights to possessing more expansive rights was a claim that the Equal Protection Clause applied to corporations. One of the strangest twists in American constitutional law was the moment that corporations gained personhood under the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. It occurred in a case called Santa Clara County, and what was odd was that the Supreme Court did not really even decide the matter in the actual opinion. It only appeared in a footnote to the case. What we are likely to have at the conclusion of the Supreme Court term is corporations that are empowered to spend in American elections because of Bellotti and Citizens United; corporations that can make religious objections thanks to Hobby Lobby; and if Jesner turns out as badly as I predict, corporations will be able to aid and abet human rights violations abroad with impunity. Source Here
"Having a corporation would allow people to put property into a collective ownership that could be held with perpetual existence," she says. "So it wouldn't be tied to any one person's lifespan, or subject necessarily to laws regarding inheriting property." Later on, in the United States and elsewhere, the advantages of incorporation were essential to efficient and secure economic development. Unlike partnerships, the corporation continued to exist even if a partner died; there was no unanimity required to do something; shareholders could not be sued individually, only the corporation as a whole, so investors only risked as much as they put into buying shares. Source Here
The way that the Arab Bank may get away with this alleged morally troubling behavior, even though it has a New York branch, is by reasserting the basic argument that was made in Nestle USA and Kiobel II: that the federal Alien Tort Statute was not intended to apply to corporations full stop. Given other cases in this area like Mohamad v. PLO, which held the word “individual” in the Torture Victim Protection Act means a natural person and does not impose any liability against organizations, the Arab Bank’s procorporate argument may well prevail. There are multiple federal Circuit Courts which have shot down the argument that corporations are immune from suit under the Alien Tort Statute. The lone outlier is the Second Circuit, which decided in 2010 that corporations are excused from suit in Kiobel I. This is the case that was appealed to the Supreme Court and became Kiobel II. Jesner v. Arab Bank was litigated in the Second Circuit. One question in Jesner was what exactly did Kiobel II do to Kiobel I. So far in the litigation, Jesner concluded that Kiobel I and its conclusion that corporations can’t be sued in federal court using the Alien Tort Statute remained the controlling law of the Second Circuit.
There's a reason people call lawyers snakes, it's because most of them speak with forked tounges. So the corporation isn't being held liable, but the shareholders can't be held liable either. That's too insane to even be called a Catch 22. We are literally being set up to have no recourse because there isn’t anybody who can be held responsible. Why is that important when I've been talking about the surveillance state?
July 14, 2020: The Intercept • Microsoft’s police surveillance services are often opaque because the company sells little in the way of its own policing products. It instead offers an array of “general purpose” Azure cloud services, such as machine learning and predictive analytics tools like Power BI (business intelligence) and Cognitive Services, which can be used by law enforcement agencies and surveillance vendors to build their own software or solutions. A rich array of Microsoft’s cloud-based offerings is on full display with a concept called “The Connected Officer.” Microsoft situates this concept as part of the Internet of Things, or IoT, in which gadgets are connected to online servers and thus made more useful. “The Connected Officer,” Microsoft has written, will “bring IoT to policing.” With the Internet of Things, physical objects are assigned unique identifiers and transfer data over networks in an automated fashion. If a police officer draws a gun from its holster, for example, a notification can be sent over the network to alert other officers there may be danger. Real Time Crime Centers could then locate the officer on a map and monitor the situation from a command and control center. Source Here
Uhm, I guess it's really is all connected, isn’t it?
June 18, 2020: The Guardian • How Target, Google, Bank of America and Microsoft quietly fund police through private donations. More than 25 large corporations in the past three years have contributed funding to private police foundations, new report says. Source Here
Long live the Military Industrial Techno Surveillance State. If you have nothing to hide, than you have nothing to worry about. Really? Are we still believing that line? Cause it's a load of crap. If we have nothing to worry about, then why are they worried enough to be implementing surveillance systems with corresponding units on the ground? Got your attention there, didn't I?
August 19, 2019: Big Think • Though the term "Orwellian" easily applies to such a technology, Michel's illuminating reporting touches something deeper. Numerous American cities have already been surveilled using these god-like cameras, including Gorgon Stare, a camera-enabled drone that can track individuals over a 50-square kilometer radius from 20,000 feet. Here's the real rub: the feature that allows users to pinch and zoom on Instagram is similar to what WAMI allows. Anything within those 50-square kilometers is now under the microscope. If this sounds like some futuristic tech, think again: Derivations of this camera system have been tested in numerous American cities. Say there is a big public protest. With this camera you can follow thousands of protesters back to their homes. Now you have a list of the home addresses of all the people involved in a political movement. If on their way home you witness them committing some crime—breaking a traffic regulation or frequenting a location that is known to be involved in the drug trade—you can use that surveillance data against them to essentially shut them up. That's why we have laws that prevent the use of surveillance technologies because it is human instinct to abuse them. That's why we need controls. Source Here
Want to know more about the Gorgon Stare? Flatten the Curve. Part 12. Source Here
Now, I'm not sure if you remember or know any Greek Mythology, but the Gorgons were three sisters, and one sister had Snakes on her head (she wasn't a lawyer) and she turned people to stone when she looked at them.
MEDUSA (Mob Excess Deterrent Using Silent Audio) is a directed-energy non-lethal weapon designed by WaveBand Corporation in 2003-2004 for temporary personnel incapacitation. The weapon is based on the microwave auditory effect resulting in a strong sound sensation in the human head when it is subject to certain kinds of pulsed/modulated microwave radiation. The developers claimed that through the combination of pulse parameters and pulse power, it is possible to raise the auditory sensation to a “discomfort” level, deterring personnel from entering a protected perimeter or, if necessary, temporarily incapacitating particular individuals. In 2005, Sierra Nevada Corporation acquired WaveBand Corporation.
Ok. Get it? The Gorgon eye in the sky stares at you while the Medusa makes you immobile. Not good, but at least it'll just freeze you in your tracks.
July 6, 2008: Gizmodo • The Sierra Nevada Corporation claimed this week that it is ready to begin production on the MEDUSA, a damned scary ray gun that uses the "microwave audio effect" to implant sounds and perhaps even specific messages inside people's heads. Short for Mob Excess Deterrent Using Silent Audio, MEDUSA creates the audio effect with short microwave pulses. The pulses create a shockwave inside the skull that's detected by the ears, and basically makes you think you're going balls-to-the-wall batshit insane. Source Here
Uhm. And drive you insane.
July 26, 2008: Gizmodo • The MEDUSA crowd control ray gun we reported on earlier this month sounded like some pretty amazing-and downright scary-technology. Using the microwave auditory effect, the beam, in theory, would have put sounds and voice-like noises in your head, thereby driving you away from the area. Crowd control via voices in your head. Sounds cool. However, it turns out that the beam would actually kill you before any of that happy stuff started taking place, most likely by frying or cooking your brain inside your skull. Can you imagine if this thing made it out into the field? Awkward! Source Here
Annnnnnnndddddd it'll kill you.
Guys, they're prepared. They've been prepared. They're ready. Remember the Doomsday Bunkers? The military moving into Cheyenne Mountain? Deep Underground Military Bunkers? The rapid rolling out of 5G? BITCOIN and UBI so neatly inserted into our minds over the last five years? They've directly told us to have three months of supplies in our homes. 2020 isn't going to be an anomaly? It's the start of the collapse of our natural resources. Take a look on Reddit and all the posts about crazy weather. Cyanobacteria blooms killing dogs and people. Toxic Super Pollution caused by atmospheric inversions killing people. This isn’t normal, this is New Normal. And they know it. They've known it for a while. Let me show you one last thing before I wrap it up.
From the earliest Chinese dynasties to the present, the jade deposits most used were not only those of Khotan in the Western Chinese province of Xinjiang but other parts of China as well, such as Lantian, Shaanxi.
Remember, words matter. Look at Gorgon Stare and Medusa. They don't randomly grab names out of a hat, or pick them because they think it sounds dystopian. They pick words for a reason.
July 7, 2017: The Warzone • There only appears to be one official news story on this exercise at all and it's available on the website of Air Mobility Command’s Eighteenth Air Force, situated at Joint Base Charleston. At the time of writing, a google shows that there were more than a half dozen more copies on other Air Force pages, as well as number of photographs. For some reason, someone appears to have taken these offline or otherwise broken all the links. Using Google to search the Defense Video Imagery Distribution System, which is the main U.S. military's public affairs hub, brings up more broken links. Oh, and unless there's been some sort of mistake, JADE HELM actually stands for the amazingly obtuse Joint Assistance for Deployment Execution Homeland Eradication of Local Militants. A separate web search for this phrase does not turn up any other results. Source Here
Now, using an acronym that indicates training to Eradicate Local Militants seems pretty dumb. It may be used in that manner if environmental collapse triggers riots, but i don't think they would warn everyone ahead of time, do you? So I dug a little bit more.
Joint Assistant for Development and Execution (JADE) is a U.S. military system used for planning the deployment of military forces in crisis situations. The U.S. military developed this automated planning software system in order to expedite the creation of the detailed planning needed to deploy military forces for a military operation. JADE uses Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology combining user input, a knowledge base of stored plans, and suggestions by the system to provide the ability to develop large-scale and complex plans in minimal time. JADE is a knowledge-based system that uses highly structured information that takes advantage of data hierarchies. An official 2016 document approved for public release titled Human Systems Roadmap Review describes plans to create autonomous weapon systems that analyze social media and make decisions, including the use of lethal force, with minimal human involvement. This type of system is referred to as a Lethal Autonomous Weapon System (LAWS). The name "JADE" comes from the jade green color seen on the island of Oahu in Hawaii where the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) is headquartered.
PACOM? Why isn't that command group responsible for the South China Sea?
Formerly known as United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) since its inception, the command was renamed to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command on 30 May 2018, in recognition of the greater emphasis on South Asia, especially India.
Now doesn't it look like Jade Helm is preparing for an invasion? And possibly insurrection later. Or at the same time? Or riots over WW3? Or food riots? And start thinking about why the laws are starting to exclude corporations? Then think about the mercenaries that are being contracted out by the government.
October 17, 2018: The Carolinan • In 2016, 75 percent of American forces were private contractors. In 2017, Erik Prince, former head of Blackwater, and Stephen Feinberg, head of Dyncorp, discussed plans for contractors completely taking over U.S. operations in Afghanistan. Although ultimately unsuccessful, it remains to be seen if the current administration will change its mind. Contractors are involved in almost every military task, such as intelligence analysis, logistics and training allied soldiers. Contractors are even involved in U.S. special ops missions. This is because contractors are essentially untraceable and unaccountable. Most are born in other countries; only 33 percent are registered U.S. citizens. Private military firms don’t have to report their actions to Congress, unlike the military or intelligence agencies. They also aren’t subject to the Freedom of Information Act, so private citizens and journalists aren’t allowed to access their internal documents. There are also no international laws to regulate private military firms. It’s been proven that many contractors are involved in illegal activities. The larger multinational companies sometimes hire local subcontractors. These contractors sometimes aren’t background-checked. A 2010 investigation by the Senate found that many subcontractors were linked to murders, kidnappings, bribery and anti-coalition activities. Some subcontractors even formed their own unlicensed mercenary groups after coalition forces leave. A 2010 House investigation showed evidence that the Department of Defense had hired local warlords for security services. In 2007, Blackwater contractors massacred 17 civilians. This eventually led Blackwater to being restructured and renamed as Academi. Source Here
Military Exercises. Private Defense Firms. No oversight. And it's all coming soon. Read more at Flatten the Curve. Part 20. Upcoming war and catastrophes. Source Here
Nah. I'm just fear mongering and Doomscrolling again.
Heads up and eyes open. Talk soon.
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For Trading September 16th

D.O.J. Joins the Inquiry on Nikola
FDX & ADBE BEAT
IPOB GETS A COMPANY
Today’s market started off with another rally but got tired and the DJIA barely stayed positive on the day. After dipping into the red, the DJIA managed to close +2.27 (.04%) while the NASDAQ ran the show finishing +133.67 (1.21%), S&P 500 +17.66 (.52%), the Russell +1.18, and the DJ Transports +96.12 (.84%). Internals were barely positive at 1.2:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ with average volume. The DJIA was split 16 up, 12 down with 2, (MRK and PG) unchanged. The biggest winners were HD and CRM both adding 33 DP’s and the losers, CAT -32, PG and GS both lower by 22 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/OitvPWK2_mg
SECTORS: We started off the day with both Import and Export prices coming in slightly hotter than projected, Empire State manufacturing gaining 17% vs. 5.9 expected and industrial production missing on the downside at +.4% from a 1% expectations, and capacity utilization increasing to 71.4% just under the 71.7% estimate.
One of our holdings, IPOB.U, Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings, a SPAC run by Chamath Palihapitiya (also did the deal for Virgin Galactic) is taking OpenDoor into its structure and it was a big hit, having closed $14.19 and opening @ $17.24, trading as high as $19.75 before closing $19.14 +4.95 (34.88%). We’ll see how the public likes the deal as things develop, but Palihapitiya has an excellent reputation for building value. After the close we had earnings from FDX and ADBE and both beat both earnings and revenues and were rewarded. ADBE had closed $497.67 +11.76 traded up to $522 and was $508.50 +22.59; FDX closed $236.67 +.33 and traded up to $260.33 before finishing $257 +20.63.
Nikola attracted a bit more unwelcome attention with the AG in New York and the D.O.J. both joining the SEC in their inquiry of the company’s claims made to investors and the public about where they were in the development of their Hydrogen fuel cell driven trucks. The stock, which traded as high as $93.99 fell back to under $30 and rallied up to $54.56 just last week on statements from its founder and a deal with General Motors. This was before 2 research reports calling into question the validity of claims made and the SEC investigation pressured the stock lower. It closed $30.78 -5.01 (14%) today.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.31, BGS -.74, FLO unch., CPB -.30, CAG -.02, MDLZ +.08, KHC +.46, CALM -.13, SAFM -.02, HRL -.44, SJM -1.06, PPC +.06, KR -.09, and PBJ $33.13 -.18 (.54%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +2.03, ABBV +.61, REGN +14.33, ISRG -.77, GILD -.14, MYL +.34, TEVA +.07, VRTX +2.43, BHC +.35, INCY -1.06, ICPT -.17, LABU +1.67, and IBB $136.07 +1.36 (1.01%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.02, CGC -.01, CRON -.02, GWPH +1.46, ACB -.08, NBEV -.04, CURLF +.10, KERN -.06 and MJ $11.36 +.06 (.53%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -1.20, GD -2.33, TXT -.26, NOC -.43, BWXT -.24, TDY -2.18, RTX -.59, and ITA $164.66 -1.19 (.72%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.25, JWN -.30, KSS -.17, DDS -.29, WMT +.81, TGT +.91, TJX +1.51, RL +.03, UAA -.08, LULU +2.18, TPR -.47, CPRI +2.00, and XRT $50.90 -.04 (.08%).
FAANG & MEGA-CAP were HIGHER with GOOGL +20.96, AMZN +54.16, AAPL -.50, FB -2.08, NFLX +21.26, NVDA +5.21, TSLA +29.93, BABA +4.49, BIDU +2.61, CRM +5.56, CMG +10.17, BA -1.75, CAT -4.01, DIS +.17, and XLK $116.50 +1.17 (1.01%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.94, JPM -2.96, BAC -.47, MS -.70, C -3.12, PNC -3.43, AIG -.42, TRV -2.31, AXP -.59, V +.52, and XLF $24.72 -.33 (1.32%).
OIL, $38.28 +1.02, Oil was quiet and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. The stocks were mixed with XLE $32.68 -.19 (.58%).
GOLD $1,966.20 +2.50 opened higher but gave up most of the gains and while it did close up on the day, it was near the lows. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.36.
BITCOIN: closed $10,815 +110. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.95 +.10 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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NKLA

For Trading September 15th
Nikola Under the Microscope
TIK TOK & ORCL
Today’s market started off with a rally and then just kept on going. There were several interesting stories, but no doubt that today was an up day with solid internals, including 5:1 up volume on the NYSE. The DJIA +327.69 (1.18%), NASDAQ +203.11 (1.87%), S&P 500 +42.57 (1.27%) and the biggest gainer, the Russell +39.70 (2.85%) and the DJ Transports +98.20(.87%). A/D on NYSE was 4:1 while NASDAQ was 3.6:1 and volume was moderate. DJIA was 5:1 up with no double-digit losers and the winners were UNH +47, BA +34, HD & V +28DPs. Nothing overwhelming, just a broad-based rally. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/rTuJflYygcI
SECTORS: We started off the day with the news that TIK TOK rejected the MSFT deal and was going to become “partners” with ORCL. It’s still somewhat up in the air as to what that actually means, but ORCL rallied on the news, closing $59.46 +2.46 (4.3%) after trading as high as $61.50. Stay tuned and I’m sure they will figure it out! Also in the news was the purchase of IMMU by GILD. While the deal gives GILD more of a portfolio of cancer therapies, the question of price paid and when they would actually make a meaningful contribution took a little off the celebration. IMMU was an $8.00 stock as recently as April and had already moved up to $42, and it closed today $83.65 +41.41 (98%). GILD is paying $88.00 or just 11 times the April price. DKNG and CZR were part of a new alliance with ESPN (DIS) as their official “Daily Fantasy Gaming” partners. DKNG finished $48.62 +7.16 (17%), and CZR was $55.39 +5.28 (10.5%). Lennar (LEN) had blow-out earnings but the stock, up from the March low of $25 to close $79 managed a small rally to $80.50 before reversing and closing $75.85 -1.63. NKLA has had some awfully bad press lately but it rallied today. After falling from $54.56 last Tuesday to close out the week $32.13 -3.42 it was trading$35.79 +3.66 before the headline that the SEC was looking into the allegations made by both Hindenburg Capital and Citron, that they had misled investors in their promotional offerings. The stock fell to $31.50 and finished $32.88 + .75. More news to come. And last, NVDA is buying ARM Holdings from Softbank and both stocks rallied. NVDA finished the day $514.89 +28.31 (5.8%) and SFTBY closed $29.69 +2.19 (8%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.53, BGS +.83, FLO -.14, CPB +.32, CAG +.12, MDLZ +.36, KHC +.16, CALM +.26, JJSF +1.25, SAFM +4.08, HRL +.39, SJM +.15, PPC +.53, KR -1.52, and PBJ $33.31 +.09 (.25%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +8.38, ABBV +1.04, REGN +19.45, ISRG +13.80, GILD +1.70, MYL +.44, TEVA +.37, VRTX +6.84, BHC +.60, INCY +5.15, ICPT +2.44, LABU +9.43. and IBB $135.55 +7.76 (6.07%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.05, CGC +.26, CRON +.19, GWPH +9.99, ACB +.26, NBEV +.04, CURLF -.26, KERN -.08, and MJ $11.48 +.23 (2.04%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +5.35, GD +2.63, TXT +.91, NOC -.45, BWXT +.94, TDY +8.53, RTX +1.50, and ITA $165.85 +2.85 (1.75%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.17, JWN +.61, KSS +1.92, DDS +1.26, WMT +.45, TGT +1.35, TJX +1.35, RL +4.43, UAA +.65, LULU +.71, TPR +1.37, CPRI +1.23, and XRT $50.94 +1.17 (2.35%).
FAANG & MEGA-CAP were HIGHER with GOOGL -3.38, AMZN -7.22, AAPL +3.94, FB +.73, NFLX -.03, NVDA +31.72, TSLA +50.73, BABA +2.85, BIDU +1.26, CRM +3.20, BA +4.98, CMG -23.83, CAT -.58, DIS -1.80, and XLK $115.33 +2.37 (2.1%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +.98, JPM +1.73, BAC +.31, MS +.90, C -2.62, PNC +2.38, AOG +.90, TRV +1.06, AXP +3.93, V +4.32, and XLF $25.05 +.34 (1.38%).
OIL, $37.26 -.07, Oil was quiet and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. The stocks were mixed with XLE $32.87 +.25 (.77%).
GOLD $1,963.70 + 15.80sold off early but didn’t break below the $1910 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.42.
BITCOIN: closed $10,705 +365. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.85 +.62 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Do I sound more like a Democrat or Republican?

Here are my positions -
  1. Should the federal government institute a mandatory buyback of assault weapons? No
  2. Should a business be able to deny service to a customer if the request conflicts with the owner’s religious beliefs? If they are not engaged in interstate commerce, the Federal Government shouldn't hold any power to legislate on the matter. At the state level (and federal if interstate) Yes, so long as they are not discriminating on the basis of race, sex, sexual orientation, transgender, or other uncontrollable factors.
  3. Should the government continue to fund Planned Parenthood? Yes, with oversight to make sure the money is going o where it is supposed to.
  4. Should universities provide “trigger warnings” and “safe spaces” for students? No
  5. Do you support the death penalty? Generally no, with the possible exception of treason during an insurrection or invasion.
  6. Should the government support a separation of church and state by removing references to God on money, federal buildings, and national monuments? No, this is referring to God as a concept.
  7. Should businesses be required to have women on their board of directors? No
  8. Do you support the legalization of same sex marriage? Yes, through a constitutional amendment. At the state level, yes.
  9. Should the military allow women to serve in combat roles? Yes as long as they meet the same physical standards as men and pass the same tests.
  10. Should marital rape be classified and punished as severely as non-marital rape? This should be a state-level issue, but yes.
  11. Should terminally ill patients be allowed to end their lives via assisted suicide? Only if there is no chance of survival.
  12. Should hate speech be protected by the first amendment? It is, and yes.
  13. Should gay couples have the same adoption rights as straight couples? Yes
  14. Should states be allowed to display the Confederate flag on government property? They have the right, but I would prefer my state not.
  15. Should women be allowed to wear a Niqāb, or face veil, to civic ceremonies? I am not fully certain. I am leaning towards yes, as long as another woman has verified her identity.
  16. Should welfare recipients be tested for drugs? Only if they have a criminal history related to drug abuse.
  17. Should employers be required to pay men and women the same salary for the same job? This shouldn't be a federal issue unless it involves interstate commerce. But at the state-level (and federal if interstate), Yes if they work the same positions and for the same hours and conditions.
  18. Should there be fewer or more restrictions on current welfare benefits? More, reform it so it supplements, rather than replaces, an income.
  19. Should the government raise the federal minimum wage? The federal government should not have the power to enact minimum wage laws unless it involves interstate commerce, in which case yes, it should be $15 an hour. Each state should be able to set its own laws on the matter.
  20. Should the government make cuts to public spending in order to reduce the national debt? No.
  21. Should the U.S. increase tariffs on imported products from China? Yes, China should be punished for violations of international law.
  22. Should businesses be required to provide paid leave for full-time employees during the birth of a child or sick family member? At the state-level, yes. At the federal level, yes, if they are involved in interstate commerce.
  23. Should the government increase the tax rate on profits earned from the sale of stocks, bonds, and real estate? Capital gains should be taxed the same as ordinary income.
  24. Should the current estate tax rate be decreased? No, I am satisfied with the current system.
  25. Should the U.S. continue to participate in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)? No.
  26. Should the President offer tax breaks to individual companies to keep jobs in the U.S.? No, but put tariffs on all imported goods.
  27. Should the government prevent “mega mergers” of corporations that could potentially control a large percentage of market share within its industry? No.
  28. Do you believe labor unions help or hurt the economy? Help, in theory, but are sometimes harmful.
  29. Should the government break up Amazon, Facebook and Google? No.
  30. Should the government add or increase tariffs on products imported into the country? Yes, all imported goods should be taxed 20%.
  31. Should the U.S. raise or lower the tax rate for corporations? Keep at current rate, but close all loopholes.
  32. Should the government require businesses to pay salaried employees, making up to $46k/year, time-and-a-half for overtime hours? At the state level, yes. At the federal level, only if they are involved in interstate commerce.
  33. Do you support the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? No.
  34. Would you favor an increased sales tax in order to reduce property taxes? No.
  35. Should pension plans for federal, state, and local government workers be transitioned into privately managed accounts? No.
  36. Should the government subsidize farmers? For now, yes, but once we get out of trade deals, put tariffs on all imports, and tax all interstate sales, subsidies should be ended.
  37. Should the government use economic stimulus to aid the country during times of recession? No, recessions are natural cycles.
  38. Should the Federal Reserve Bank be audited by Congress? Yes, we should know where that money is going.
  39. Should the IRS create a free electronic tax filing system? Yes.
  40. Should an in-state sales tax apply to online purchases of in-state buyers from out-of-state sellers? No, the federal government should not enact an intrastate sales tax.
  41. Should pension payments be increased for retired government workers? Yes, adjust them yearly for inflation.
  42. Should U.S. citizens be allowed to save or invest their money in offshore bank accounts? Yes, as long as all income is reported.
  43. Should the government classify Bitcoin as a legal currency? Yes, but maintain the system of the dollar and cash as a legal currency.
  44. Should the government acquire equity stakes in companies it bails out during a recession? No.
  45. Do you support charter schools? No.
  46. Should the government decriminalize school truancy? No for Elementary school. For middle and high school, no social studies and English, yes for everything else.
  47. Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun? States and the federal government should not be allowed to enact any restrictions on black powder weapons or ammunition for them. For cartridge firearms, the federal government should only have the power to regulate interstate sale of them. At the state level, cartridge firearms should require a license to obtain. The process should involve passing a mental and physical health exam, having a decent criminal record, and passing a written and shooting exam. Handguns and centerfire semi-automatic weapons should have higher standards for licensing and should be registered before being obtained, but automatic CCW to anyone who has a license for a handgun. fully automatic weapons should be illegal to sell, except to collectors, who must meet an even higher standard to obtain.
  48. Should victims of gun violence be allowed to sue firearms dealers and manufacturers? No, this is just dumb.
  49. Should the President of the United States have the power to deploy military troops in order to stop protests? If any state governments are overthrown, yes. Otherwise, only if the Governor of a state requests assistance.
  50. Should teachers be allowed to carry guns at school? Yes if they have a valid license 9see above).
  51. Should it be illegal to burn the American flag? No, but I have no respect for anyone who does.
  52. Should the state government order schools to provide online only classes in order to combat coronavirus? No, let each school decide.
  53. Should there be term limits set for members of Congress? Yes, maximum four terms for the House, and maximum two for the Senate.
  54. Should people on the “no-fly list” be banned from purchasing guns and ammunition? No, this denies one of due process rights.
  55. Are you in favor of decriminalizing drug use? Yes, for most but not all drugs (basically the really bad ones, e.g., meth, heroin, etc;)
  56. Should the NSA (National Security Agency) be allowed to collect basic metadata of citizen’s phone calls such as numbers, timestamps, and call durations? Only with a warrant and probable cause of a crime.
  57. Should the Supreme Court be reformed to include more seats and term limits on judges? No, this is just trying to pack the court, which should not be politicized.
  58. Should the government regulate social media sites, as a means to prevent fake news and misinformation? No, this violates free speech.
  59. Do you support the Patriot Act? Not the clause that allows warrantless searches.
  60. Should the government be allowed to seize private property, with reasonable compensation, for public or civic use? Only for public land and not for privatization, and the owner must be paid for losses in full.
  61. Should college sports be played in the fall of 2020? Yes, but let teams decide.
  62. Should local police increase surveillance and patrol of Muslim neighborhoods? No, this just breeds resentment.
  63. Should the government raise the retirement age for Social Security? No
  64. Should the government pass laws which protect whistleblowers? Yes, so long as national security isn't compromised.
  65. Should the redrawing of Congressional districts be controlled by an independent, non-partisan commission? Yes, gerrymandering breeds corruption.
  66. Should internet service providers be allowed to speed up access to popular websites (that pay higher rates) at the expense of slowing down access to less popular websites (that pay lower rates)? If they are privately owned, yes.
  67. Should the U.S. government grant immunity to Edward Snowden? For his leaks on domestic surveillance, yes. Some other things, maybe not.
  68. Should foreign terrorism suspects be given constitutional rights? Yes.
  69. Do you support the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani? Yes.
  70. Should the U.S. continue to support Israel? Yes.
  71. Should the U.S. accept refugees from Syria? Yes, but only after extensive background checks to confirm that they are not a threat and are genuine refugees and not economic migrants.
  72. Should the government increase or decrease military spending? Decrease by streamlining it, and making it more efficient, through eliminating wasteful spending.
  73. Should the military fly drones over foreign countries to gain intelligence and kill suspected terrorists? No, unless said country has approved it, and American citizens should be given fair trials.
  74. Should the military be allowed to use enhanced interrogation techniques, such as waterboarding, to gain information from suspected terrorists? No.
  75. Should every 18 year old citizen be required to provide at least one year of military service? No, but maintain the Selective Service system and allow states to draft people if necessary.
  76. Should Jerusalem be recognized as the capital of Israel? Yes.
  77. Should the U.S. go to war with Iran? No, they should be disarmed through diplomatic channels.
  78. Should the U.S. remain in the United Nations? Yes.
  79. Should the U.S. remain in NATO? Yes.
  80. Should the U.S. defend other NATO countries that maintain low military defense budgets relative to their GDP? Yes, but get them to pay their share.
  81. Should the United States pull all military troops out of Afghanistan? If the Afghan government wants us to, then yes.
  82. Should the U.S. sell military weapons to India in order to counter Chinese and Russian influence? Yes.
  83. Should the U.S. conduct military strikes against North Korea in order to destroy their long-range missile and nuclear weapons capabilities? No, use all diplomatic means first.
  84. Do you support President Obama’s move to lift the trade and travel embargo on Cuba? Yes.
  85. Should it be illegal to join a boycott of Israel? No.
  86. Should the government cancel production of the F-35 fighter? Yes, until the price has been lowered or our deficits have been drastically reduced, and its hardware is drastically improved.
  87. Do you support the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)? No.
  88. Should people be required to work in order to receive Medicaid? No.
  89. Should cities open drug “safe havens” where people who are addicted to illegal drugs can use them under the supervision of medical professionals? Yes.
  90. Do you support the legalization of Marijuana? The federal government should not have the power to ban marijuana, except to regulate or ban its interstate sale, which it shouldn't at the state level, legalize.
  91. Should the government regulate the prices of life-saving drugs? No.
  92. Should health insurers be allowed to deny coverage to individuals who have a pre-existing condition? At the federal level, no, if they are operating in interstate commerce. At the state level, no.
  93. Should there be more or less privatization of veterans’ healthcare? Less, improve the current system.
  94. Should the federal government increase funding of health care for low income individuals (Medicaid)? Yes.
  95. Should the federal government be allowed to negotiate drug prices for Medicare? Yes.
  96. Should the government fund the World Health Organization? Yes.
  97. Should the government increase environmental regulations to prevent climate change? No.
  98. Should researchers be allowed to use animals in testing the safety of drugs, vaccines, medical devices, and cosmetics? Yes, but not for cosmetics.
  99. Should the U.S. expand offshore oil drilling? No, but maintain current rigs.
  100. Do you support the use of hydraulic fracking to extract oil and natural gas resources? Allow it to be legal, but don't subsidize.
  101. Should the government stop construction of the Dakota Access pipeline? No.
  102. Should disposable products (such as plastic cups, plates, and cutlery) that contain less than 50% of biodegradable material be banned? No.
  103. Should drilling be allowed in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge? No.
  104. Should cities be allowed to offer private companies economic incentives to relocate? Yes.
  105. Should the government give tax credits and subsidies to the wind power industry? No, no industry should be favored.
  106. Should the government require children to be vaccinated for preventable diseases? No.
  107. Do you support the use of nuclear energy? Yes, lessen restrictions, but no subsidies.
  108. Should producers be required to label genetically engineered foods (GMOs)? Yes.
  109. Should illegal immigrants have access to government-subsidized healthcare? No.
  110. Should immigrants be deported if they commit a serious crime? Yes, after serving their sentence.
  111. Should illegal immigrants be offered in-state tuition rates at public colleges within their residing state? No.
  112. Should the U.S. build a wall along the southern border? No, but make a high tech surveillance barrier instead of a physical wall. This is because a physical wall would be too costly and ineffective.
  113. Should local law enforcement be allowed to detain illegal immigrants for minor crimes and transfer them to federal immigration authorities? Yes.
  114. Should sanctuary cities receive federal funding? No.
  115. Should the U.S. increase restrictions on its current border security policy? Yes.
  116. Should immigrants be required to pass a citizenship test to demonstrate a basic understanding of our country’s language, history, and government? Yes.
  117. Should children of illegal immigrants be granted legal citizenship? Yes, if they were born here.
  118. Should Muslim immigrants be banned from entering the country until the government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists? No.
  119. Should immigrants be required to learn English? Yes, if they wish to become citizens.
  120. Should there be a temporary ban on all immigration into the United States? No, but increase border security.
  121. Should the US increase or decrease the amount of temporary work visas given to high-skilled immigrant workers? Increase, our economy relies on businesses hiring the highest skilled workers at the lowest cost.
  122. Should working illegal immigrants be given temporary amnesty? No.
  123. Should immigrants to the United States be allowed to hold dual citizenship status? Yes.
  124. Do you support Common Core national standards? Yes, but only for English and social studies.
  125. Should a photo ID be required to vote? No, but gradually update voter rolls and purge voters who are required to be according tot eh Voting Registration act of 1993.
  126. Should foreigners, currently residing in the United States, have the right to vote? No, only citizens should.
  127. Should the minimum voting age be lowered? No.
  128. Should the electoral college be abolished? No.
  129. Should the US have a mail-in ballot process for whole states in local, state, and federal elections? No.
  130. Should foreign lobbyists be allowed to raise money for American elections? No.
  131. Should there be a limit to the amount of money a candidate can receive from a donor? No.
  132. Should corporations, unions, and non-profit organizations be allowed to donate to political parties? No.
  133. Should there be a 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials from becoming lobbyists after they leave the government? No.
  134. Should political candidates be required to release their recent tax returns to the public? No.
  135. Should funding for local police departments be redirected to social and community based programs? No, increase funding and training for police departments in higher crime rate communities
  136. Should police officers be required to wear body cameras? Yes.
  137. Should convicted criminals have the right to vote? Yes, but only after completing their sentence and probation.
  138. Should drug traffickers receive the death penalty? No.
  139. Should non-violent prisoners be released from jail in order to reduce overcrowding? Yes, but have them do community service.
  140. Do you support mandatory minimum prison sentences for people charged with drug possession? No.
  141. Should the government hire private companies to run prisons? No.
  142. Should prisons ban the use of solitary confinement for juveniles? No, but it is currently being overused
  143. Should the US assassinate suspected terrorists in foreign countries? No, capture, interrogate, and imprison them instead
  144. What is your position on Abortion? Adopt a constitutional amendment overturning Roe v Wade and allow state to enact their own laws. At the state level, abortion should be legal within the first 20 weeks, but afterwards, should be banned except for exceptional cases.
  145. Do you support affirmative action? No.
submitted by Maximum-Lingonberry2 to u/Maximum-Lingonberry2 [link] [comments]

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.

Demand for U.S. Dollars

Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.

https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6

https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.

https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.

Source: Bloomberg
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.

The Rise of Crypto Dollars

Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.

https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.

Institutional Developments

In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.

https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.

Future Opportunities

There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
Thank you.

Reference:
[1] How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
[2] The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
[3] Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
[4] Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
[5] Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
[6] Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
[7] McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
[8] Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
[9] Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
[10] Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
[11] Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
[12] The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
[13] Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
[14] Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
[15] New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
[16] Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
[17] Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
[18] Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
[19] Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
[20] Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
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SEC HALTS TRADING 1st BITCOIN Capital After 6000% GAINS IN 2017

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